According to both analysts, gaming engagement is a different animal than video engagement, and Netflix needs both.
Lionsgate
More than one expert landed independently on Lionsgate as the most practical near-term target, and the math is hard to argue with, as the studio could conceivably be acquired for roughly what Netflix just pocketed in break-up fees.
“John Wick alone might be worth it,” Shapiro said.
Lionsgate brings the Hunger Games and Twilight franchises, as well as a clutch of FAST channels. Its streaming service Starz also carries a library of content not dissimilar to that of WBD, including DC Comics properties like Lucifer, which drive an outsized share of viewing, according to Rosen.
Indeed, if Netflix loses access to WBD’s library following its Paramount acquisition, Lionsgate starts to look less like an opportunistic buy and more like a necessity.
ITV
The British broadcaster might not be the flashiest acquisition target on this list, but Shapiro makes a pointed case for it.
ITV would give Netflix a meaningful foothold in the UK market, where its engagement has, by some measures, plateaued. It would also, not incidentally, keep ITV out of Comcast’s hands.
Stealing ITV away from Comcast has a double-edged benefit, according to Shapiro: it nets inventory in a key international market and blocks it from a competitor.
Plus, non-fiction formats travel well regardless of where they’re produced, according to Core Advisors partner Blake Saunders.
“The location of a production company for unscripted content doesn’t really matter,” Saunders said.
Spotify
The wildcard that multiple sources raised independently, as well as the one that generated the most enthusiasm, is Spotify.
The two companies are already deepening their relationship through a podcast partnership, and the strategic logic is genuinely compelling, as combining them would create a massive subscription entertainment platform that spans video, audio, and live content.
“It would give Netflix immediate scale and open up a much broader advertising proposition,” Cochrane said.
There are, of course, substantial barriers.
Spotify stock is at an all-time high, Daniel Ek maintains founder control, and the deal would invite regulatory scrutiny.
But the audio-video convergence story is real, according to LightShed Ventures’ partner Rich Greenfield. And Rosen pointed to a specific tactical advantage, in that Netflix’s homepage creates far less friction for video podcasts than Spotify’s does, which could matter enormously as that format continues to grow.
Roku
Gruene raised one target—Roku—that the others largely passed over, a pitch less about content and more about what Netflix still lacks on the business side.
Advertising has become an increasingly important part of Netflix’s revenue mix, and Roku is an adtech powerhouse with deep roots in connected TV.
“Netflix is good at making their own content,” Gruene said. “But I’m always interested in what they don’t have that would drive better revenue.”
Acquiring Roku would hand Netflix a mature advertising infrastructure and a massive distribution platform, without adding a single writer or showrunner to the payroll.
Nothing
The contrarian position had its merits, articulated most forcefully by Gruene and Greenfield.
Netflix demonstrated remarkable discipline by walking away from a deal that many believe would have burdened the company with debt, bureaucracy, and a library of diminishing assets. The company should savor its savvy, according to Gruene.
