“Prediction markets aggressively entice consumers to bet and wager on sports, politics, culture, weather, and pretty much anything. We refuse to let New Yorkers, especially our young people, become collateral damage,” Menin said in a statement.
These actions added to the suspicions raised by Harvard researchers, who in April published a study of cases “in which traders appear to have exploited material nonpublic information on Polymarket and Kalshi, spanning events from the joint U.S.-Israel February 2026 strike on Iran to pre-announcement trading in Taylor Swift’s engagement.”
Analyzing 210,000 cases, Harvard discovered a win rate of 69.9%, “well in excess of chance,” resulting in “$143 million in aggregate anomalous profit.”
Earlier this year, the AP reported that 50 accounts had placed winning bets on President Trump announcing a ceasefire with Iran just minutes before he did. This came on the heels of an unidentified trader’s winning $400,000 bet on the ouster of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro just hours before the U.S. Army’s Delta Force extracted him.
Despite these controversies, prediction markets have been ramping up their marketing efforts with high-gloss campaigns in a bid to build consumer trust. Earlier in October, Polymarket released its first U.S. political campaign ahead of the midterms by Academy Award-winning director Katheryn Bigelow.
But according to brand strategist David Deal, “Polymarket needs to recognize that achieving visibility is not the same as earning trust.”
“The company has a viable path to credibility, but it needs to address questions about its integrity that go well beyond marketing,” he said.
