Imagine you’ve set the goal of running a marathon that’s 90 days away. You’ve hired a trainer who says this a less than optimal amount of time, but if you stick religiously to her fitness routine, nutrition plan, and sleep schedule, you’ll be ready come race day. Cheat in any of those three areas, she warns, and you won’t be able to run 26.2 miles on three month’s notice.
Let’s assume you feel pretty good about your odds of following through in each area. You believe there’s a 70% chance you’ll stick with the fitness routine, a 70% chance you’ll stick with the nutrition plan, and a 70% chance you’ll stick with the sleep schedule. What are your odds of doing all three and showing up ready to run?
The answer, surprisingly, is only 34.3%. You have three prerequisites to success. Individually, each seems likely to happen. But you need all three to play out as planned. When we multiply your odds of completing each step in the process, the outlook isn’t so rosy.
This is a relatively simple goal. You only need three things to go right. Now imagine your odds in a more complex and challenging situation—like starting a successful business or winning a coveted promotion. Suddenly, it’s not surprising that nine out of ten businesses supposedly fail or that most people make a tradition out of falling short on their New Year’s resolutions. We aren’t getting unlucky. We’re experiencing the predicted failures associated with big goals and bad odds. But this isn’t a reason to give up. It’s a reason to probability hack. Here are three steps you can take to tilt the odds in your favor.
1. Think negative: do everything you can to identify and prevent bad outcomes
If you flip a coin and call heads, there’s a 50% chance you’ll get the outcome you want and a 50% chance you’ll fail. Our real-life goals are more complex, but the same principle holds. The odds of all possible outcomes add up to 100%. That means, if we can make bad outcomes less likely, we’ll automatically boost our chances of success.
Many people avoid wondering about things that could go wrong. After all, we’re supposed to think positive, right? Unfortunately, positive thinking won’t prevent bad outcomes, which means it won’t improve our odds. Preparation will. By identifying threats to our success, we can get creative and systematically de-risk our goals.
When I applied to become the product director of a growing health organization, shortly after graduating college, my odds of success weren’t great. I was competing against a lineup of more experienced candidates. But I didn’t give up or resort to simply manifesting a good outcome. I took intentional steps to make it happen.
